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Economists worldwide are recalibrating their ratings of the world's second-largest economy since China's leaders rolled out a much-hyped reform package of policies last month at the Third Plenum of the 18th Communist Party Central Committee.儲存One exception is Robin Bew, managing director of the Economist Intelligence Unit of the Economist Group. He is maintaining his view that China's economic growth will moderate to 5 percent annual growth over the next decade, even if the reform mission is successful.He said China is in transition from a low-skill manufacturing economy to a high value-added services society, where people are better educated and enjoy a higher standard of living."What the plenum has done is to allow that transition to occur," said Bew. "But that doesn't mean the reforms will help China to grow more quickly."Based in London, Bew is responsible for editorial operations and internal intellectual debates in the Economist Intelligence Unit. He joined the group in 1995 after working in the UK Treasury. He became chief economist in 1997 and editorial director in 2006.After giving a keynote speech on the Hay Group's first international conference in Shanghai in late November, Bew shared his views on China's economy with Shanghai Daily.Q: Some people say China's latest reform plan is the boldest in three decades. Do you agree?A: It's definitely bold. It seems to me the government is being clear that it sees a bigger role for the private sector in the economy and a smaller role for the state. That's not entirely new. We've seen the government take steps to encourage private sectors before, but they are being a little bit more ambitious about it now.So, higher dividends will be paid by state-owned enterprises. There will be more of a role for market forces in setting prices, which will be damaging to some state-owned enterprises that previously controlled some of that pricing.I guess the other thing is in the social realm, such as the one-child policy change. It will not have a dramatic impact on population growth, but it's certainly an example of the Chinese government deciding to reduce interference in people's personal lives. I think that's important.Also, the government says it wants to break the link between local political and local judicial departments. That's potentially very important because it starts to lead to a separation between the legal and political systems. If that can be achieved, it would be a very big change in China.Finally, they talked about a role for social organizations and non-governmental organizations. We think it's a good thing in caring for the elderly and the likes of that.So, if you take all those things together, it is a pretty bold plan. However, the government's timetable is not very ambitious. Its target is 2020. That's a long while away.Q: You just said the change in one-child policy is not likely to have a big impact. Can you elaborate on that?A: Generally, there is a relationship between how wealthy you are and the number of children you have. So what we tend to see is low-income families have more children and high-income families have fewer. The change affects a group of people who are relatively high-income and, therefore, more unlikely to have more children anyway. So you may see more people have two children rather than one, but I think the net impact on the overall population would not be that great.Rather than saying it's an economic policy, I think it's a social policy. It is a very clear example of the government reducing its involvement in personal lives. It is a small step saying that people should be free to make some decisions for themselves.It could have been a lot more ambitious. I mean, for example, the policy could have abolished altogether. But that didn't happen. If the policy were scrapped, people would need to take a different view on the availability of the workforce here. At the moment, the labor force is shrinking very quickly here.If people had a lot more children, then in 15 or 20 years' time, that would start to look different again. But it would also require a lot of public investment in things like schooling and health care. I think this is an area where the government is going to take small steps.Q: What do you think are the major challenges China faces in implementing the new set of reform policies?A: I think t迷你倉e main issue will be resistance. There are plenty of important state powers in Chinese society who will resent the reforms and probably try to block them. Those who are running state-owned enterprises may not be very happy about the changes envisioned in the plan. Local government politicians may be uncomfortable about idea of the judiciary becoming more independent. These are all important people who can get in the way of policy implementation. We do not yet know is how effectively the government can actually deliver on some of these policiesThere are other challenges, too, although the government can cope with them. If you allow market forces to set prices, you will see some firms in China go bust. State-owned enterprises required to pay higher dividends to the state will be less profitable. A bigger role for the private sector could lead to changes in terms of the labor market. Those changes need to be managed. Any change is always being destabilizing. Particularly in employment, changes run the risk of fomenting discontent. The government will need to ensure social smoothness. But I think that can be managed.Q: How do you see the process of yuan liberalization?A: We've seen tremendous, surging demand for international trade to be denominated in yuan. There have been reports recently about how more and more companies are trying to accept payment in yuan. We've seen more Western business invoice in yuan. And the government is attempting to build a more internationally open currency trade environment.So, you're seeing the capability of some companies to transact yuan offshore, and the UK is trying to develop itself as a yuan-trading hub. We think all those are good things. The government is clearly trying to make yuan exchange a little bit more flexible and a little bit more market-determined.But, ultimately, the big issue in China is that the capital account is still pretty restricted. So moving money offshore is still quite complicated. And it takes time for the government to change those things because this will cause potential destabilization. I think China still looks at what happened to Asia in the late 1990s. It is worried that could happen here.We don't know but we suspect there are still a lot financial problems here in China, such as local government debt and off-sheet lending. All of that means there will be risks to liberalizing too quickly because it could result in destabilization of the financial system. So I think the government is going to move very slowly on that.Q: How worried should we be about the local government debt?A: Pretty worried, on the basis that we don't know. You always worry about things you don't know. The reality is we just don't know how bad it is.I believe the central government will not allow destabilization in the financial system. That, of course, may mean the government having to step in and provide financial support. That could reduce China's capacity to deal with other problems. It would be a big drain on the public purse at a time when the Chinese government probably has to invest in other things, such as health care.Local debt is probably manageable. But this may be the last major financial problem that will be manageable for China. I guess my advice to them would be to get wise with it. They are going to need to ensure, from now onwards, that more controls are in place. That has already been happening. The government is trying to clamp down on off-sheet lending and shadow banking.Q: The pilot free trade zone in Shanghai has attracted a lot of attention. How do you see its role in Shanghai's bid to become an international financial hub?A: In order to become a major financial hub, you will need not just financial acuity but also professional service firms, legal firms and a legal structure and framework that people believe in. It will need willingness for businesses to transact under Chinese law. That takes time. There is a reason why Shanghai hasn't challenged Hong Kong. It's all about those things.The free trade zone obviously itself won't change everything. So come back to the plenum's judiciary reform. People need to believe in the judiciary system here.They really need to believe in impartiality in the way law is applied. Right now they don't. That has to change. The free trade zone is part of the answer, but it can't be the whole answer.self storage